According to a new report by Counterpoint Research, the success of the iPhone 17 line is expected to push Apple past Samsung as the world’s top phone maker. Here are the details.

Apple set to register 10% YoY growth in iPhone sales in 2025

Earlier this month, Counterpoint Research published two intelligence reports showing that Apple is outpacing the rest of the phone market, thanks in large part to the iPhone 17 line.

The first report showed that in the first month of iPhone 17 availability, Apple’s sales rose 22%, while the broader market slipped 2.7% over the same period.

In the second report, Counterpoint claimed that Apple posted a 37% year-over-year increase in iPhone sales in October, compared with an 8% bump for the market overall.

Now, a new Counterpoint intelligence report (via Bloomberg) says that while Samsung is expected to end 2025 with a 4.6% increase in phone sales, Apple is projected to register a 10% year-over-year growth.

This will be enough to push the company over the edge to reclaim the top spot as the world’s leading phone maker with a 19.4% market share.

Commenting on the numbers, Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang said:

• “Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. (…) Consumers who purchased smartphones during the Covid-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase. Furthermore, 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years.”

The report also says the broader smartphone market will grow a more modest 3.3%, and it predicts that Apple will remain the world’s top smartphone seller until at least 2029, helped in part by the reportedly upcoming foldable iPhone and the iPhone 17e.

The report comes on the heels of Apple’s own guidance that this holiday quarter will be the company’s biggest ever. During its last earnings call, CEO Tim Cook repeatedly highlighted the iPhone 17 lineup’s strong early performance, despite a broadly reported tepid response to the iPhone Air model, specifically.

Source: 9to5mac