A new smartphone forecast shows Apple powering nearly all growth in 2025, though a looming memory shortage threatens to erase the momentum soon after.

Worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.25 billion units in 2025, which means 1.5% year-over-year growth. The International Data Corporation (IDC) credits the stronger outlook to Apple's performance during the holiday quarter, a rebound in China, and healthier demand in key emerging markets.

Apple is on track for the strongest smartphone year in its history. The company is forecast to ship 247.4 million units in 2025, a 6.1% increase from the prior year.

IDC attributes growth to strong demand for the iPhone 17 lineup, which leads in many regions. China is crucial, with Apple's share surpassing 20% in October and November 2025.

Analysts had expected a 1% decline in China for 2025, but updated figures now point to 3% growth instead. A market that once looked flat now shows enough strength to nudge worldwide shipments into positive territory.

Carriers relying on flagship launches are attracting customers into multi-year contracts. Apple is also seeing benefits, as demand for high-end phones stabilizes in the US and Western Europe.

IDC expects Apple's smartphone revenue in 2025 to exceed $261 billion, with growth of 7.2% year over year.

Carriers gain leverage when a hot product cycle, like the iPhone 17 range, arrives before a tougher year. If IDC's numbers hold, the market will spend 2025 riding Apple's coattails — then in 2026 adjusting to fewer phones and higher prices.

Source: Appleinsider